Vol. 9 No. 59 (2021)

Research Article

The Endogeneity of the Steady-State Growth Rate

Published 2021-04-30

Cilt 9 Sayı 59 kapak

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the steady-state growth rate or the natural growth rate and to determine whether the steady-state growth rate is endogenous to demand conditions or not. In order to achieve these aims, this study makes an econometric analysis using ordinary least squares method based on the data of Turkey covering the period 1969-2006. The present study estimates the natural growth rate and analyzes whether the natural growth rate is endogenous or not. But, different from the previous studies, the present study makes estimations in the conditions that capital-output ratio remains constant. According to the results of the study, the steady-state or natural growth rate is 5.71% in Turkey for the period 1969-2006. Moreover, the natural growth rate becomes 9.51% in the boom periods. This result shows that the steady-state or natural growth rate is endogenous to demand conditions in Turkey. Thus, the present study provides evidence for the Thirlwall’s (1969) theory in a different manner.

Keywords Natural growth rate, endogeneity, steady-state, capital-output ratio, economic history of Turkey

Öz

Durağan Durum Büyüme Oranının İçselliği

Bu çalışmanın amacı, durağan durum büyüme oranını, diğer bir deyişle doğal büyüme oranını tahmin etmek ve durağan durum büyüme hızının talep koşullarına bağlı olması anlamında içsel olup olmadığını saptamaktır. Bu amaçlara ulaşmak için Türkiye’nin 1969-2006 dönemini kapsayan verilerine dayalı olarak ve basit en küçük kareler yöntemi kullanılarak ekonometrik bir analiz yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmada konuya ilişkin önceki çalışmalardan farklı bir şekilde sermaye-çıktı oranının sabit kaldığı koşullarda tahmin yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye'de 1969-2006 döneminde durağan durum veya doğal büyüme oranı % 5,71'dir. Ayrıca, canlanma dönemlerinde doğal büyüme oranı % 9,51 olmuştur. Bu sonuç, Türkiye'deki durağan durum veya doğal büyüme hızının talep koşullarına bağlı olması anlamında içsel olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, mevcut çalışma Thirlwall'un (1969) teorisine farklı bir açıdan kanıt sağlamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler Doğal büyüme oranı, içsellik, durağan durum, sermaye-hasıla oranı, Türkiye iktisat tarihi

PDF (Turkish)

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