Cilt 5 Sayı 14 (2017)

Araştırma Makalesi

Terörizm ve Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye'de Özellikle Ham Petrol İthalatı ve Doğal Gaz ile İlişkisi

Yayımlandı 30.07.2017

Cilt 5 Sayı 14 kapak

Abstract

Relationship Between Terrorism and Macroeconomic Variables: Especially Import of Crude Oil and Natural Gas in Turkey

The main purpose of this study is to observe the interaction between terrorism and energy— crude oil and natural gas import—in Turkey. It also observes the linkage between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, interest rate and inflation rate. Here, the study considers a time series data of macroeconomic variables’ growth rate which is calculated by using natural log formula. Besides, it runs correlation and scatterplot to find out the connection between variables using terrorism as an independent and macroeconomic factors as dependent variables. The study result shows that terrorism is positively correlated with the import of crude oil and natural gas though it is statistically insignificant. In addition, it also demonstrates the correlation between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables. Needless to say, these results will help the foreign and domestic investors to get an idea about the relationship between terrorism and macroeconomic variables in Turkey during 2003 to 2015. However, it is noticeable that consideration of refugee crisis and neighbor countries’ political instability could have changed the findings of the study.

Keywords Terrorism, Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Turkey’s economic growth

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'de terörizm ile enerji-ham petrol ve doğal gaz ithalatının etkileşimini gözlemlemektir. Çalışma aynı zamanda terörizm ile diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki bağlantıyı da gözlemlemeyi amaçlamaktadır: döviz kuru, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, faiz oranı ve enflasyon oranı. Burada, çalışma, doğal log formülü kullanılarak hesaplanan makroekonomik değişkenlerin büyüme hızının bir zaman serisi verisini değerlendirmektedir. Ayrıca terörizmi bağımsız değişken ve makroekonomik faktörleri bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanarak ikisi arasındaki bağlantıyı bulmak için korelasyon ve scatterplot kullanmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, terörizmin ham petrol ve doğal gaz ithalatıyla pozitif yönde ilişkili olduğu, ancak istatistiksel olarak önemsiz olduğu görülmektedir. İlave olarak terörizm ile diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki korelasyonu da göstermektedir. Şüphesiz bu sonuçlar, yerli ve yabancı yatırımcıların Türkiye'de 2003 ve 2015 yılları arasında terörizm ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişki hakkında fikir sahibi olmalarına yardımcı olacaktır. Ancak mülteci krizinin ve komşu ülkelerin siyasi istikrarsızlığının dikkate alınmasının, araştırmanın bulgularını değiştirmiş-etkilemiş olabileceği farkedilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler Terörizm, Küresel Terörizm İndeksi (GTI), Türkiye'nin ekonomik büyümesi

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Kaynakça

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